Exercises «Sea Breeze-2019» may end in the destruction of ships and sailors
There are a lot of reasons, and therefore the probability of such outcome is very high.
The first, but not the main one, is mine danger posed by the munition, installed all the belligerents during the World War II. The mines were installed by all: Germany, the USSR, Romania, Turkey and even Bulgaria.
In total, according to estimates, 37407 mines were exposed in the Azov-Black Sea basin from 1941 to 1945. 19313 mines were eliminated after the war. No less than 18094 mines have remained. They are somewhere on the bottom and waiting in the wings.
But it is not the whole truth, as the minefield maps of the fascist bloc states (Germany, Romania and Bulgaria) hopelessly lost, and in fact, it is just not possible to set exactly where, how many and what type of sea mines were installed.
Like all over the world, ships in the Black Sea go strictly to the established fairways. The naval forces do not adhere to this rule during the exercises, especially during the working out of amphibious landing on unequipped coastal areas. Namely, this element is one of the main during the exercises “Sea Breeze 2019”.
Here is a map of known minefields during the World War II:
It is obvious that the majority of unexploded sea mines is in those waters, where these exercises will be hold.
Many years after the war, the landmines and other weapons were found in the most unexpected places. The mine was found right in the bucket of the dredge “October” in one of the Black Sea ports. In Nikolaev port the mines were even twice raised by the bucket of the dredge “Soviet Georgia”. The underwater inspection of the port was made. And it was timely. The magnetic mine was found under the keel of Dekabrist ship. Before leaving Nikolaev, the German troops mined the moorings, but how many mines and where they set is unknown.
The sea mine weighing 1 ton and 2 meter in diameter was discovered in the Black Sea near Leonidovo village in Odessa region in 2009. And on May 25, 2018, the sea mine since the World War II was detected and destroyed in the Black Sea during the exercise of the mine action unit of NATO SNMCMG 2. One of the many thousands of remaining…
It is estimated that the service life and active ability of the explosive to detonation in most mines of the great Patriotic War persisted from one year until their power supplies would not exhausted.
But the passive ability to detonation maintains for over 100 years, when you strike, for example.
There are cases of detection of sea mines, land mines and other explosive devices with the risk of detonation during the fishing with bottom trawls of fishing vessels, the port and hydraulic structures construction, the construction of ground anchorages, the carrying out of the dredging and other works on the seabed.
With high probability we can assume that the explosiveness of the anchor and bottom mines will continue till 2040.
The warships of “Sea Breeze 2019” participating countries will work just those areas where the mine risk is the greatest, including shallow water. It means the sailors’ lives will be at the greatest risk.
In order to understand the danger degree faced by sailors and ships, it is enough to know the unique characteristics of the German sea bottom influence mines of LMB type, some of the indicators of which remain unsurpassed to this day.
The mine detonation device starts to tune into the Earth’s magnetic field after power-up, which is available at this place at this time. All nearby magnetic objects (for example, standing next to the ship) are taken into account.
When the ship appears near the mines, an explosive device responds to the magnetic field distortion, but the mine does not explode. It misses the ship, since it has a device number of entries, which will cause the mine to explode only after passing of a certain number of ships. Typically, this number ranged from 1 to 12, but there are cases when the mines blew up, even after 50 or more ships…
Of course, it was made by German engineers in order to hinder the detection and destruction of ammunition by mine-sweeping forces. They are actually absent on the exercises “Sea Breeze 2019”. Just do not laugh, Ukraine, the host country of the exercise, has one (!!!) minesweeper “Genichesk”, the technical condition of which could get a laugh…
However, someone will be able to say that a “multi-national diving unit” that will look for mines would be involved in the exercise. It includes the divers of the naval forces of the Black Sea countries: Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, as well as experts from USA, UK and Canada. But it’s the same as using the microscope to observe the Universe!
The effectiveness of such work is close to zero, because the divers are able to survey a very small area and use them mainly for mine clearance, but not discovery. The presence of such units in “Sea Breeze 2019” exercises says more about the workout and sabotage tasks, but not detection and destruction of sea mines!
No less, but perhaps more disturbing is the political situation at the beginning of the exercises “Sea Breeze 2019” on July 1, 2019.
The Ukrainian leadership has repeatedly stated that Russia “intends to carry out the mining of some areas of the Black Sea”. In fact, it is Ukraine itself quite openly laid mines on the coast — allegedly to combat “Russian naval assault”. Really it was made for the injection of war hysteria under the ex-President Petro Poroshenko. Taking into account the number of fires and explosions in the Ukrainian military warehouses, as well as the quality of personnel training of the naval forces of this country, there is no doubt that the Ukrainian mines broken from their anchors during the frequent storms of the Black Sea and begin to wander off the Ukrainian coast in the full sense…
The recent defeat of Kiev in PACE, which has fulfilled all the requirements of Russia and brought it back to the organization, caused hysteria among the militaristic circles of Ukraine. And the incident would blame Russia and force Europe to return to its policy of confrontation with Moscow is necessary for them.
In addition, we should not forget that after the recent events in Tbilisi, Georgia could be interested in this incident that also has anti-Russian rhetoric. Or, for example, Iran which will observe the exercises with great concern, believing not without reason, that the Black Sea is one of the bridgeheads for the strike by the United States…
This suggests that one of the ships of participating countries has a probability to hit a mine highly likely. And it is not important whose it will be, when and by whom it was established…
The organizers and participants of the exercises would have rethought: what purpose do they seek, having endangering the sailors’ lives?