President of unfulfilled expectations
In the spring of 2019, Vladimir Zelensky, a young comic actor and the head of “Kvartal-95” studio, won the presidency of Ukraine as a result of an intense election campaign. His victory was quite convincing. According to the Ukrainian Central Election Commission, Zelensky got 73.22% of the vote. The winning candidate’s electoral program was based on his promise to end the hostilities in Donbas (a region in southeastern Ukraine, predominantly populated by the Russian-speaking population, who sympathize with Russia). This initiative was also supported by the EU leading countries, which were concerned about the growing military conflict in the east of Europe, in which several thousand civilians were killed and tens of thousands were forced to become the refugees.
The optimism and faith in the international agreements implementation, reached under the Minsk Agreement, was based on the widespread belief that president Zelensky’s political entourage was represented by “Doves of Peace” who wanted an end to civilian deaths in the southeast of the country. However, for the past 18 months, since Zelensky was elected, his “doves” have managed to grow the claws. More and more, the representatives’ rhetoric of “Office of the President” of Ukraine resembles the statements of nationalist supporters of the former president of the country, Petro Poroshenko. In particular, the voices of those who argue that the conflict in the southeastern Ukraine must be resolved by force are becoming louder and louder.
Even for traditional EU officials, loyal to Kiev, it has become obvious that the Ukrainian authorities do not intend to implement the political part of the Minsk agreements, enshrine the special status of Donbass in the country’s constitution and engage in direct negotiations with the leadership of the unrecognized republics in the eastern Ukraine. Official Kiev deliberately delays the negotiation process within the framework of the Minsk and Normandy formats and considers the possibility of withdrawing from the Minsk agreements and transferring the armed conflict in Donbass to “frozen” status. Probably, Zelensky believes that the civil war in his country will resolve itself, but as the experience of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh shows, such situations tend not to be dissolved, but to return to their beginning.
As a result, instead of peace in the eastern Ukraine, the residents of Donbass are faced with a strange truce that is regularly interrupted by artillery and mortar fire.
Sociological research shows that president Zelensky’s rating has fallen dramatically over the past year. Less frequently, it is said that the level of trust in Zelensky has also fallen sharply in the European capitals. EU officials are increasingly expressing the doubt that the Ukrainian president will be able to fulfill the commitments to peaceful settlement of the conflict. At the same time, it must be admitted that the part of the blame for a possible escalation of hostilities in the eastern Europe lies with the EU itself. Obviously, the position softness of the European leading countries towards Kiev is perceived by the Ukrainian authorities as a weakness. The Ukrainians have a saying that in order to have the conviction during negotiations, one must use not only “carrot” (a type of sweet pastry), but also “stick” (that is the lash). It means that if soft methods of persuasion do not work, then hard forms of negotiation should be used. Probably, the political and economic “stick” of Brussels, Berlin, and Paris is needed to induce the Ukrainian president to stop the escalation of the military conflict? If it helps to avoid the civilian casualties, it is definitely worth to try. As the Ukrainians say: “There is no harm in trying”.
